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Arizona Governor Survey: Showing Our Work

Arizona Governor Survey: Showing Our Work

October 28, 2026
Arizona Governor Survey

Showing our work

Polling has been challenging this year, and Arizona has been harder than most. Rather than hand you one number and ask you to trust it, we are releasing the toplines, the full crosstabs, the turnout assumptions behind them, and the arithmetic that connects the three.

Fielded Oct 25–27, 2026N = 900 likely votersMoE ±3.3Conducted by KStrat
The governor ballot, three ways
As reported
The survey's published topline
Hobbs
48.3
Biggs
43.1
Hobbs +5.1
Expected turnout
39 R / 32 D / 29 NPP, the survey's own model
Hobbs
44.1
Biggs
47.2
Biggs +3.1
Ballots returned
38.6 R / 38.0 D / 23.4 other, as of Oct 27
Hobbs
47.2
Biggs
44.8
Hobbs +2.4

Same 900 respondents, same party columns, three electorates. We are not asserting that any one of them is the result. A turnout model is an expectation, not a measurement.

Choose your own electorate

Pick a preset or drag the sliders. The ballot and every topline below recalculate from the published party columns.

39.0
32.0
29.0
R +7.0 electorateShares always total 100
Hobbs
Biggs
Margin
Restated to 39.0 / 32.0 / 29.0 (R / D / NPP)
As reportedRestated at turnout model± Difference

Q1Would you say things in Arizona are going in the right direction or wrong direction?

Right direction
30.3
27.9
−2.4
Wrong direction
56.7
59.5
+2.8
Not sure
13.0
12.6
−0.4

Q2Overall, how favorable or unfavorable is your opinion of Donald Trump?

Very favorable
34.1
37.5
+3.4
Somewhat favorable
12.0
12.7
+0.6
Neither favorable nor unfavorable
1.7
1.6
−0.0
Somewhat unfavorable
0.8
0.9
+0.1
Very unfavorable
51.2
47.2
−4.0
Not sure
0.1
0.1
−0.0

Q3aFavorable or unfavorable impression of Katie Hobbs (Democrat)?

Favorable
43.9
40.3
−3.6
Neutral
10.2
9.8
−0.4
Heard of, no opinion
1.1
1.1
+0.0
Never heard of
0.6
0.6
+0.0
Unfavorable
44.1
48.1
+4.0

Q3bFavorable or unfavorable impression of Andy Biggs (Republican)?

Favorable
42.1
45.8
+3.7
Neutral
6.0
6.5
+0.5
Heard of, no opinion
2.0
2.0
+0.0
Never heard of
0.8
0.8
+0.0
Unfavorable
49.1
44.8
−4.3

Q4Which issue facing Arizona is most important for your vote for Governor?

Inflation, jobs, and the cost of living
27.6
27.0
−0.6
Housing costs and rent costs
6.1
5.8
−0.3
Homelessness
1.7
1.5
−0.1
Public safety and crime
3.4
3.6
+0.2
Traffic and transportation
0.4
0.4
−0.0
Immigration and border security
10.3
11.3
+1.0
Education and school quality
4.1
4.0
−0.1
Election Integrity
14.6
15.5
+0.9
Taxes and state spending
11.9
12.0
+0.1
Healthcare and social services
4.1
3.8
−0.2
Water resources and policy
13.4
12.8
−0.6
Not sure
2.4
2.3
−0.2

Q5Have you already voted in the November 2026 Arizona General Election?

Yes, I have already voted
43.6
43.5
−0.1
No, I have not voted yet
56.4
56.5
+0.1

Q6If the general election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote? Or if you already voted, who did you vote for?

Katie Hobbs (Democrat)
48.3
44.1
−4.2
Andy Biggs (Republican)
43.1
47.2
+4.0
Teri Hourihan (Independent)
0.6
0.7
+0.1
Risa Lombardo (Green)
0.8
0.8
−0.1
Not sure / I didn't vote in this race
7.1
7.1
+0.1

Q1Would you say things in Arizona are going in the right direction or wrong direction?

ResponseAllRepDemNo partyVotedNot yetWhiteLatinoBlackAsian18-3435-4445-5455-6465+MaleFemale
Right direction30.34.861.122.335.626.229.635.618.236.237.530.623.728.130.633.925.1
Wrong direction56.787.223.362.150.361.658.249.760.953.053.141.874.158.455.155.558.3
Not sure13.08.015.615.614.112.212.214.720.910.89.427.62.213.614.210.616.6

Q2Overall, how favorable or unfavorable is your opinion of Donald Trump?

ResponseAllRepDemNo partyVotedNot yetWhiteLatinoBlackAsian18-3435-4445-5455-6465+MaleFemale
Very favorable34.172.73.028.235.033.436.229.645.04.99.715.937.041.741.336.430.8
Somewhat favorable12.018.20.219.010.213.410.712.21.544.512.024.217.511.58.514.48.6
Neither favorable nor unfavorable1.71.01.13.12.11.41.53.60.00.00.80.01.24.41.11.61.7
Somewhat unfavorable0.81.60.01.00.31.31.00.70.00.00.03.71.10.00.90.90.8
Very unfavorable51.26.595.748.352.450.350.553.953.550.677.454.543.342.448.246.458.1
Not sure0.10.00.00.50.00.20.20.00.00.00.01.70.00.00.00.20.0

Q3aFavorable or unfavorable impression of Katie Hobbs (Democrat)?

ResponseAllRepDemNo partyVotedNot yetWhiteLatinoBlackAsian18-3435-4445-5455-6465+MaleFemale
Favorable43.94.787.735.947.841.044.043.050.339.564.537.433.637.144.443.544.6
Neutral10.24.67.319.68.511.510.29.711.311.110.118.513.210.37.77.014.8
Heard of, no opinion1.11.20.02.40.31.80.54.40.00.00.07.60.00.01.11.90.0
Never heard of0.60.60.01.50.40.80.90.00.00.00.05.40.00.00.40.60.8
Unfavorable44.189.05.040.643.044.944.542.938.349.425.431.153.252.546.347.139.9

Q3bFavorable or unfavorable impression of Andy Biggs (Republican)?

ResponseAllRepDemNo partyVotedNot yetWhiteLatinoBlackAsian18-3435-4445-5455-6465+MaleFemale
Favorable42.183.73.541.739.744.044.937.041.419.714.937.848.348.947.245.437.5
Neutral6.011.80.46.26.25.84.66.70.032.39.55.67.96.14.47.53.9
Heard of, no opinion2.02.41.22.41.62.31.93.20.00.00.00.06.02.01.91.92.0
Never heard of0.80.80.41.50.01.51.00.80.00.00.07.30.00.60.20.41.5
Unfavorable49.11.494.548.252.546.447.652.358.647.975.649.337.942.446.344.855.1

Q4Which issue facing Arizona is most important for your vote for Governor?

ResponseAllRepDemNo partyVotedNot yetWhiteLatinoBlackAsian18-3435-4445-5455-6465+MaleFemale
Inflation, jobs, and the cost of living27.620.032.130.728.726.726.119.037.570.525.855.532.329.020.924.532.1
Housing costs and rent costs6.12.711.83.24.07.72.224.85.20.020.89.71.26.11.87.34.4
Homelessness1.70.02.92.01.02.21.90.04.90.03.60.02.31.61.21.81.5
Public safety and crime3.45.41.53.44.92.23.26.30.00.02.50.07.13.93.13.04.0
Traffic and transportation0.40.00.01.40.00.70.00.07.50.02.90.00.00.00.00.70.0
Immigration and border security10.322.11.18.210.310.310.613.05.12.30.01.79.516.212.910.110.6
Education and school quality4.13.23.95.45.03.44.36.00.00.00.00.05.23.46.35.71.9
Election Integrity14.625.57.910.413.415.518.65.50.02.67.06.712.911.820.416.412.0
Taxes and state spending11.913.410.811.56.316.211.77.728.310.330.910.410.85.98.911.412.6
Healthcare and social services4.10.94.96.55.13.34.34.41.52.50.014.33.14.03.84.92.9
Water resources and policy13.46.519.314.118.79.313.813.410.011.83.60.011.017.618.012.814.3
Not sure2.40.43.73.22.52.43.40.00.00.02.91.74.70.52.81.43.9

Q5Have you already voted in the November 2026 Arizona General Election?

ResponseAllRepDemNo partyVotedNot yetWhiteLatinoBlackAsian18-3435-4445-5455-6465+MaleFemale
Yes, I have already voted43.645.157.326.2100.00.046.141.339.919.517.624.840.351.553.239.249.9
No, I have not voted yet56.454.942.773.80.0100.053.958.760.180.582.475.259.748.546.860.850.1

Q6If the general election for Governor were held today, for whom would you vote? Or if you already voted, who did you vote for?

ResponseAllRepDemNo partyVotedNot yetWhiteLatinoBlackAsian18-3435-4445-5455-6465+MaleFemale
Katie Hobbs (Democrat)48.32.393.745.654.443.547.651.148.947.972.543.939.040.747.144.054.4
Andy Biggs (Republican)43.188.83.539.444.841.844.834.841.449.422.629.149.549.348.146.338.6
Teri Hourihan (Independent)0.61.70.00.00.70.50.80.00.00.00.00.02.21.50.01.00.0
Risa Lombardo (Green)0.80.01.21.40.01.50.05.00.00.02.80.03.60.00.00.71.0
Not sure / I didn't vote in this race7.16.81.613.70.012.56.79.19.82.72.127.05.88.54.67.86.0

Exactly as delivered. Demographic columns can't be restated to a different turnout model without joint party-by-demographic tables, which aren't part of this release, so they appear unchanged.

A poll is a sample plus an expectation about who turns out. For every answer, the restated figure is the weighted average of the three published party columns at the expected turnout. Nothing else is changed. No new interviews were conducted and no respondent-level data was used.

Restated % = 0.39 × REP + 0.32 × DEM + 0.29 × NPP
Nothing else changesNo new interviews, no respondent-level data, no reallocation of undecided voters.
Party columns are fixedChanging how many Republicans you expect to vote doesn't change how Republicans answered.
Only the total restatesGender, age and race columns would need joint tables not in this release.
Something we noticed and can't fully explain. Combining the party columns at the expected 39 / 32 / 29 doesn't return the reported toplines. Solving for the shares that do gives a different mix that reproduces every row to four decimal places.
Turnout model appliedMean gap (38 rows)Largest gap
Expected 39 / 32 / 291.14 pts4.28 pts
33.5 / 35.7 / 30.8, solved for0.00 pts0.00 pts
Either the toplines sit at a different party mix, or the crosstab columns are computed on a different weighted base. The second is a reporting artifact and we think it the likelier. We have asked and do not yet have an answer.
Read these before you quote anything here
  1. The fieldwork is KStrat's. Their questionnaire, interviews and reported figures are reproduced exactly as delivered. The restatement is American Encore's.
  2. This is arithmetic on aggregates, not a re-tabulation of respondent-level data, and it doesn't carry the authority of one.
  3. The margin of error still applies. ±3.3 points on the full sample, wider on subgroups. Several differences shown here are smaller than that.
  4. Turnout expectations are contested. 39 / 32 / 29 is an R +7 electorate. Ballots returned by Oct 27 ran 38.6 R to 38.0 D (1,106,723 of 3,286,885), against 36.9 R and 39.4 D at the same point in 2022. Source: Arizona county recorders via Derek Weech's daily series.

Everything above is reproducible from the files below. The workbook carries the toplines as live formulas, the crosstabs exactly as delivered, and an editable turnout model. Corrections welcome.

PDFShowing our workThe 8-page summary deck PDFToplines, crosstabs and methodFull toplines as reported and restated, with notes XLSXData workbookLive formulas, crosstabs, editable turnout model
Arizona likely voters, fielded October 25 to 27, 2026. N 900, online panel, English only, stated margin of error ±3.3 points. Conducted by KStrat, commissioned and released by American Encore, October 28, 2026.
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